Q2 2017 Newsletter: The Gears Are In Motion, But Are We Going Anywhere?
Second quarter economic data so far continues to suggest that the US economy is still on track even as the labor market continues to provide no discernable increase in wage inflation. Economic data wavered slightly during the quarter but continues to demonstrate a stable overall environment amidst a perceived slowing in labor market trends and some downwardly revised GDP forecasts. The Fed gave the market the expected rate hike of 0.25% and released plans for rolling off its Mortgage Backed Securities and Treasury assets. Markets kept a close eye toward lower fundamental economic expectations during the quarter due to less efficient policy discussions and the potential for exogenous shocks. April’s consumer spending report provided a more compelling argument for continued growth, though some are revising their yearly GDP figures downward closer to the 2-2.5% range. While we continue to view the current administration’s policy stance likely to enhance growth, the timeline for realizing these improvements may be stretching further into 2018 and less likely to be seen, if at all, in the next six months.